The United Kingdom is at a crossroads in its defence strategy, grappling with underfunding, the need for innovation, and rising global threats. Recent resignations of key defence officials have spotlighted these challenges, as the government prepares to unveil its long-awaited Defence Investment Plan (DIP) for the next decade.
The Ministry of Defence (MoD) is reportedly facing a £28 billion shortfall between now and 2030, raising concerns about the UK’s ability to maintain its military readiness and global influence. The upcoming DIP aims to address these issues, but its delayed publication has fueled speculation and criticism.
The Underfunding Crisis
In his resignation letter, former Defence Secretary John Healey accused Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the finance ministry of failing to commit adequate resources to defend the country against rising threats. Healey highlighted that extra support for defence is ‘backloaded,’ meaning most of the increased spending will occur towards the end of the decade.
Fenella McGerty of the International Institute for Strategic Studies described this approach as a ‘hockey-stick’ trajectory, with significant uplifts delayed until the final years of the timeline. This strategy has drawn criticism, as it leaves the UK vulnerable in the near term.
Prime Minister Starmer has pledged to raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP from next year, increasing to three per cent if Labour wins the next general election, expected in 2029, and reaching 3.5 per cent in 2035. However, experts argue that this may only cover operations focused on the UK and its immediate vicinity.
The Need for Innovation
Armed forces minister Al Carnswho also resigned, criticized the investment plan for focusing on ‘fighting the last war rather than the next one.’ He emphasized the need for more funding for uncrewed systems and other innovative technologies, stating that ‘data is the new gunpowder.’
Senior military figures have argued that the unpublished plan places too much emphasis on traditional hardware, such as ships, tanks, and fighter jets. Instead, they advocate for prioritizing new technologies, including AI-enabled softwarespace and cyber capabilities, hypersonic missiles, and cheap drones. Drones, in particular, are seen as a ‘cheap, highly precise artillery system’ that can provide an affordable volume of lethal capability.
Nick Reynoldsan expert in land warfare at the Royal United Services Instituteemphasized the importance of drones in modern warfare. However, Jamie Gaskarth of Chatham House noted that the UK’s investment in drones is not yet a wholesale shift, with a focus on domestic production rather than outsourcing.
Global Threats and Strategic Choices
Since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2026, Russia has been identified as the most urgent threat to the UK, with concern over China’s long-term ambitions. Gaskarth stated that the most immediate and pressing threat is Russia, but China remains a significant concern.
Carns highlighted the need for the UK to be ‘at the table’ in rewriting global rules on communications, energy, and trade, emphasizing that countries like China and Russia are taking their security seriously. He argued that the UK must make strategic choices to maintain its influence and security.
The defence plan has been repeatedly delayed, but Starmer has insisted that it will be published before a NATO summit in Turkey on July 7. As the UK navigates these challenges, it faces critical decisions that will shape its military capabilities and global standing for years to come.
